More than three months after the Writers Guild of America strike was finally settled, the walkout is still the networks' bete noire. What was most notable about the recent upfront presentations was the lack of new fall shows that typically fill the network schedules. Consequently, the nets are opting to return an overabundance of freshman series from this season. Some of them are passable, if not smash, performers (ABC's Samantha Who? and The CW's cult hit Gossip Girl), while others, in an ordinary season, likely would never get a second shot (NBC's Life). Among the handful of new series, the networks -- which, from Three's Company to Ugly Betty, have long looked to foreign markets for programming ideas -- are cribbing more than ever. As Mediaweek's Alan Frutkin reports, the flood of offshore offshoots includes NBC's Kath & Kim (based on the Australian comedy) and CBS' Eleventh Hour (Jerry Bruckheimer's riff on a sci-fi series from the U.K.). --Tony Case, Editor, Special Reports

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If an overall theme emerged from this year's upfront presentations, it most certainly is the lack of new programming on most of the broadcast networks this fall.

Clearly, the writers' strike had tremendous impact on the season just ended, forcing broadcasters to air repeats throughout much of the first quarter. But the strike's effect on next season may be even greater, having delayed pilot production to the extent that most projects remained in the preproduction phase at the start of the upfronts, leaving the nets to rely heavily on returning series to fill their fall schedules.

Faced with an abbreviated pilot-production season, some nets returned what seemed like an inordinately large number of freshman series to their lineups-surprising considering that several of those shows garnered less-than-stellar ratings and little buzz over the past season.

ABC's schedule boasts five sophomore series: Dirty Sexy Money, Eli Stone, Private Practice, Pushing Daisies and Samantha Who? NBC returned three series: Chuck, Life and Lipstick Jungle. Fox returned Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles and game show The Moment of Truth, while The CW brought back Gossip Girl and Reaper and CBS returned The Big Bang Theory.

Another notable trend is the large number of new series based on foreign formats. ABC's Life on Mars is a stateside remake of a BBC series. NBC's Kath & Kim is modeled on an Australian comedy. CBS' Eleventh Hour is Jerry Bruckheimer's take on a British sci-fi series. Worst Week also is modeled after a U.K. show. And The Ex List originated in Israel.

Insofar as comedies are concerned, while the number of sitcoms has shrunk in recent years, now they seem to be stabilizing. NBC upped its number of half hours to four, with the addition of Kath & Kim, while CBS added a one-hour comedy block to Wednesdays with The New Adventures of Old Christine and the Jay Mohr series Project Gary. Fox's two-hour animated Sunday night block remains intact, with two new ani-coms, The Cleveland Show and Sit Down, Shut Up waiting in the wings, while live-action comedy holds steady at one hour with the addition of Do Not Disturb.



That said, The CW drops down to only two half hours with its Friday night block of Everybody Hates Chris and The Game. ABC placed only one half hour on its fall schedule with Samantha Who? even though it is readying a number of comedies for midseason, including animated entry The Goode Family.

On the nonscripted front, the networks are tacking toward more family-friendly fare. ABC launches the nontraditional contest show Opportunity Knocks, in which contestants answer questions about their own families.

In the vein of ABC's Extreme Makeover: Home Edition, Fox has ordered Secret Millionaire, in which wealthy philanthropists go undercover to give away money to deserving folks. NBC, meanwhile, takes a new stab at relationship shows with Momma's Boys, in which prospective brides must pass muster with their future mothers-in-law.

Another trend in nonscripted programming is the growing number of celebrity producers. Seasoned reality vet Ashton Kutcher (Punk'd, Beauty and the Geek) is behind ABC's Opportunity Knocks. Tyra Banks extends her TV empire beyond her talk show and America's Next Top Model with The CW's Stylista. And American Idol host Ryan Seacrest helms NBC's Momma's Boys.

Perhaps the biggest question about next season concerns midseason. With so many pilots yet to go into production, the nets still have a slew of questions to answer about their creative direction. Those answers could wind up supplying viewers -- as well as advertisers -- with next season's biggest surprises.

While the upfronts can lead to as many questions as answers about what's ahead for the nets, advertisers continue to root for the broadcasters. As Shari Cohen, president and co-executive director of national broadcast at MindShare N.A., explains, "We all come to these presentations hopeful because it's in our best interest for the programming to succeed. The networks' success is our success."

Following is a network-by-network recap of the coming fall schedule, in alphabetical order.



ABC

Of all the networks, the writers' strike seems to have put ABC most squarely behind the eight ball in terms of pilot production. The network announced only two new shows for the fall -- game show Opportunity Knocks and time-travel cop drama Life on Mars. Even though many advertisers left ABC's upfront presentation feeling somewhat blase, their support of the net and its entertainment chief Stephen McPherson, at the end of the day, remains strong.

Much of that support stems from the growth ABC has experienced over the last several seasons with hits like Lost, Desperate Housewives, Grey's Anatomy and Dancing With the Stars. So, even if buyer response to new series screened during the upfronts was somewhat tepid, advertisers were generally inclined to give ABC a pass -- at least until midseason, when the bulk of new shows start rolling out.

Of ABC's two new fall series, some advertisers say they like what they see. Opportunity Knocks takes the game show to contestants' front doors - literally -- by melding the traditional game format with the Anytown USA setting of Extreme Makeover: Home Edition. Several advertisers say that with this entry ABC may have found a way to further extend its brand of family-friendly, aspirational reality programming.

"I can envision this show being in Des Moines, Iowa, or Decatur, Ill.," says Jennifer Neal, managing partner of PHD East. "The notion of showing up in someone's local town and converting that community into a game-show setting is something that could have broad audience appeal."

Advertiser response to Life on Mars was more mixed. That may reflect the net's own uncertainty about the show as it plans to recast and reshoot the pilot. But buyers support ABC's belief in the material and commitment to a new pilot, especially at a time when some network execs are discarding the pilot process altogether, jumping straight from script to series. McPherson himself told upfront attendees of his continued belief in the pilot process, which drew praise from several advertisers.

"Pilots generate learning," says Shari Anne Brill, svp, director of programming at Carat. "You learn where adjustments need to be made in a project or what actors or characters need to be changed. And in success, the pilot for shows like Lost and Desperate Housewives instantly hooked viewers, not to mention the advertisers who were buying the shows."

Whether or not the retooled Life on Mars succeeds, Lisa Quan, vp, director of audience analysis at Magna Global, says it is a good strategic move for the network.

"ABC doesn't have a procedural, so this could really fill a niche there," she says.

Another niche ABC needs to address is the half-hour comedy. With only one fall sitcom in Samantha Who?, the network is picking midseason to launch more laughs. Along with returning stalwart According to Jim and the network debut of Scrubs (which moves over from NBC), ABC plans to introduce animated comedy The Goode Family. Preview sketches of the show, from King of the Hill creator Mike Judge, drew praise at ABC's upfront.

"I thought it looked pretty good, and ABC needs to boost up its comedy development," says Brill.

While Fox is better known for animated series, Brill suggests that there's no reason the genre can't flourish on another network. "It doesn't matter whether comedy takes the form of animation or live action," she says. "Funny is funny."



CBS

With five new programs on its schedule, CBS ordered the most shows for fall: comedies Worst Week and Project Gary and dramas The Mentalist, Eleventh Hour and The Ex List. From clips screened at the network's upfront presentation, none of the shows were perceived by advertisers as the sort of breakout hit that could vault CBS into first place among adults 18-49. Rather, they were seen as solid, safe fits on a schedule that likely will keep CBS stable and competitive.

After every upfront presentation, advertisers stress how little can be gleaned from two-minute "cut-downs" of pilots. But several CBS shows were well-received by buyers, particularly Worst Week. Set to follow Two and a Half Men on Mondays at 9:30 p.m., the series "appears to share the same DNA as the network's other Monday night comedies, which is a good place to start given CBS' success on the night," says John Rash, Campbell Mithun's director of media analysis.

In a bold programming move, Monday isn't the only night CBS has scheduled comedies. While other nets retrench on half-hour productions, CBS is expanding its comedies, blocking out Wednesdays from 8-9 p.m. as a new home for laughs with the returning The New Adventures of Old Christine and new entry Project Gary.

CBS execs are well aware of how hard those time slots are for comedy, having recently programmed The King of Queens there. And while advertisers applaud the net's comedy expansion, most predict drawing viewers won't be easy -- especially with the on-the-bubble Christine leading off the night. Brad Adgate, svp, director of research at Horizon Media, says CBS has had difficulty getting Christine to work on Monday, "so to put the show on a tough night in a tough time slot, that's a tall order."

Of the dramas, buyers think The Mentalist, on Tuesdays at 9 and starring Simon Baker (The Guardian) as an eccentric cop, is most on-brand for the net. "It's in keeping with CBS' TV tonality over the past decade: police procedurals with a strong, single-character focus," says Rash. With NCIS as its lead-in, The Mentalist's chance at success is strong, some say. And with new lead-out Without a Trace, buyers think CBS finally may shore up one of network's most vulnerable time slots.

From Smith to 3 Lbs. to Cane, "Tuesdays at 10 p.m. has been pretty much of a Bermuda Triangle for CBS," says Carat's Brill. "So putting an established show there is probably a good idea."

Trace's move to Tuesdays at 10 p.m. from Thursday at 10 cedes a valuable time slot to sci-fi drama Eleventh Hour. With CSI as lead-in, it will at least get sampling, buyers say.

The net's other new drama, romantic comedy The Ex List, could have a hard time finding an audience on Fridays at 9.

"It's the one new drama that could bring in younger viewers for network," says Adgate. "But not on Fridays."




Fox

While Fox only placed two new series on its fall schedule -- J.J. Abrams sci-fi drama Fringe and comedy Do Not Disturb -- it may have caused the greatest stir during upfront week when it announced plans to broadcast Fringe in a format it terms "Remote-Free TV." For the run of the series, the net says, it will air only half the number of commercial and promotional minutes of a typical show. It plans the same strategy for Joss Whedon's midseason drama Dollhouse. Fox entertainment chairman Peter Liguori told upfront attendees, "We need to give viewers a new reason to come to network television, and we hope that this will give them less reason to change the channel during commercial breaks."

Fox sales president Jon Nesvig said each show would only contain five minutes of national commercial time per hour and each commercial break will include shorter commercial pods. And though the network has offered season premieres for shows like 24 with limited commercial interruptions, offering an entire season thus is certainly new ground.

"I give them a lot of credit for doing this," says Laura Caraccioli-Davis, evp of Starcom Entertainment. "Our clients are always interested in less clutter, and here's a network taking a stand to try and cut down on clutter."

Other buyers agree. "To put it bluntly, I think it's a great idea," says Brian Hughes, vp, manager of audience analysis at Magna Global. "Anything that's going to improve viewing through [fewer] commercials is good in our books."

Whether or not the model is economically viable remains unclear. Several advertisers note that with less commercial time available in the show, what is available is likely to have higher value. The question is: Will advertisers pay a higher premium? "I think it probably would be worth it," says Hughes. "It definitely has the potential to keep viewers tuned in throughout the show and commercial breaks, which is what we want to do."

Tune-in ultimately will depend on Fringe's quality. But with a force like J.J. Abrams behind it and news that Fringe will get the post-American Idol slot come first quarter, "It may have the strongest opportunity for a new show to break through next season," says Campbell Mithun's Rash.

Advertisers were less keen on Fox's new fall comedy Do Not Disturb. "I don't think I have any reason to believe it will work more than Back to You did," says Hughes.

Also having shown previews of two midseason animated comedies, Sit Down, Shut Up and The Cleveland Show, during its upfront, the contrast between Fox's animated and live-action comedies was apparent to advertisers. "Ever since Married With Children, it's been hard to say what a live-action Fox comedy looks like, because they haven't really had a good one," says Starcom's Caraccioli-Davis.

As always with Fox, first and second quarter will be stronger than third and fourth. Along with American Idol's return as well as that of 24, the launch of Dollhouse from Buffy, the Vampire Slayer's Joss Whedon should draw sampling, as may the net's latest nonscripted entry, the benevolent Secret Millionaire. Says Hughes, "Fox usually doesn't go for feel-good TV, so it might feel out of place, but we'll just have to see."



NBC

It was only a year ago that NBC's ex-programming chief Kevin Reilly presented the network's 2007-08 schedule to advertisers, after which NBC's top brass summarily dumped Reilly for Ben Silverman. And, as brave a face as Silverman has put on while steering a new course for the network, most analysts remain wary of his moves.

Here's the irony: With shows like The Office, My Name Is Earl, 30 Rock and Heroes, Reilly had been rebuilding, however slowly, NBC's reputation as a destination for quality programming. Silverman, on the other hand, appears to have veered 180 degrees from Reilly's course. With a series of remakes including American Gladiators, Knight Rider and the forthcoming Australian import Kath & Kim, Silverman's target demo seems surprisingly more downscale than any NBC audience in recent history. While that's a concern for advertisers, most are giving the network the benefit of the doubt -- at least for now. "It's a new NBC brand," says Caraccioli-Davis. "I think Ben [Silverman] has a vision for that new brand, and he has a proven track record of delivering on unique vision, whether it be Bravo's Blow Out or NBC's The Restaurant or Showtime's The Tudors."

Last fall, NBC attempted to capitalize on Heroes' freshman success with a spate of fantasy-inspired dramas like Bionic Woman, Journeyman and Chuck. That strategy failed. Yet, with no new dramas having hit with viewers, the net once again finds itself banking on fantasy with Knight Rider, Crusoe and My Own Worst Enemy. "I think the network is hoping to capture the same audience that Heroes did and recapture lightning in a bottle," says Horizon Media's Adgate. "When you look at Heroes, even with the aborted season this year due to the writers' strike, it has a young median age, and the audience is pretty much evenly split between men and women, many of whom are in upper-income brackets. So those are appealing demos for any network."

But even if NBC's new dramas can attract young viewers, advertisers express doubts that its new shows (not available in time for screening at the NBC upfront) are hardly cut from the same cloth as past NBC shows ranging from Hill Street Blues to LA Law to ER.

What's more, new comedy entry Kath & Kim, some advertisers say, could lead the network to new lows. Without clips at the upfronts, some searched out the original Australian hit on which NBC's sitcom is based for clues as to where NBC was headed. What they found, they say, wasn't all that reassuring. "It's so over-the-top, it's so bawdy, it's so very crass," says Carat's Brill, who watched clips of the Australian series online. "Kath & Kim makes Married With Children look like The Brady Bunch."

On a positive note, advertisers were encouraged by how NBC has reached out to the ad community in search of partnerships, resulting earlier this month in GM signing onto fall drama My Own Worst Enemy as exclusive integration partner in the auto category.

"Of all the networks, I think NBC seemed to most openly acknowledge that advertising keeps the lights on," says Caraccioli-Davis. "Whereas the other networks seem to have a protective shell around their shows and the creative teams behind those shows, NBC is encouraging advertisers to have conversations with those creative teams, and it never hurts to start that conversation with advertisers as early on as NBC has."



The CW

Having suffered steep declines among young viewers this past season largely due to the writers' strike, The CW finds itself in the most precarious position of perhaps all the nets. Not only must it make up lost ground next season, but like any network, it must continue to grow.

While some advertisers responded favorably to clips of Surviving the Filthy Rich and Stylista, others questioned whether The CW could regain viewers.

While clips were not ready in time for the network's Beverly Hills, 90210 spinoff, The CW did assemble interview clips with the new show's young cast members. But even in the absence of previews of the show itself, most advertisers believe it neatly fits into the net's wheelhouse. "If you think of the roots of The CW -- which, in many ways, is The WB -- 90210 certainly reminds me of The WB in the early days, with that sort of focus on angsty teen dramas," says Carat's Brill.

If there's a risk associated with revisiting that classic '90s series, it may be that viewers who were fans of the original may be older than The CW's target demo of women 18-34 -- or at least on the older side of that demo -- while young viewers may not know the brand at all.

Still, Brill believes that the show could work. "As long as it's good, it doesn't matter whether they remember the original," she says. What's more, Brill adds, pairing 90210 with The CW's other new drama, Surviving the Filthy Rich, makes for a strong night of programming that is on-brand for the network.

While airing two new shows without a known quantity to anchor a night traditionally has been seen as a drawback, several advertisers say it can work to a network's advantage. "I think Tuesdays gives The CW a real promotional platform to drive the message home that it's a night of new programming," says PHD's Neal.

Advertisers also responded well to The CW's latest contest show, Stylista, in which wannabe fashion editors vie for a job at Elle magazine. Following America's Next Top Model on Wednesdays at 9 p.m. and executive produced by Top Model's star and executive producer Tyra Banks, most advertisers see the pairing as a good fit.

"The footage we saw at The CW's presentation looked fun and the two shows have fashion in common, so I think Stylista has a strong chance of attracting the audience watching Model," says Magna's Quan.

In addition to adding three new shows, advertisers say The CW's decision to dump Friday night wrestling -- and, perhaps more importantly, hand over its Sunday night programming block to production company Media Rights Capital -- could help strengthen the brand. "The strategy of having content partners involved is interesting," says Neal. "I applaud the effort to try and look at a model differently and get other people at the table who understand consumers and can look at it from all aspects."

Whether any of The CW's new shows or even MRC's new shows can restore luster to the net's somewhat tarnished brand is tough for advertisers to answer. Neal says that with all The CW's new programming, the key to success might hinge on looking beyond the shows themselves, to engage young viewers where they live and breathe.

"If the network can figure out a way to extend a successful program into merchandise, into DVD sales, into other products, and get the younger women and younger consumers hooked in on many more entry points to the show," Neal says, "that's one of the biggest opportunities -- and challenges -- for a brand like The CW."

Senior editor Alan Frutkin covers network programming for Mediaweek and can be reached at ajfrutkin@sbcglobal.net.

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